Pricing & Edge

What is hold (vig or juice) in sports betting?

Hold is the bookmaker’s theoretical margin on a market: the percentage of total handle the book expects to keep if bets arrive in proportion to the prices. You will also hear it called vig or juice. It exists because the implied probabilities of a market’s sides sum to more than 100% — the excess over 100% is money that does not go back to winning tickets.

Two related numbers describe the same margin. The overround is the sum of implied probabilities minus 100% — for a −110/−110 market, 104.76% − 100% = 4.76 points. The hold divides that margin by the total: 1 − 100 ÷ 104.76 = 4.55%. Overround is measured against the true probabilities; hold is measured against the money. Quoting either is fine as long as you say which one you mean.

What hold costs you

Hold is a tax on every bet, and it compounds. At a 4.55% hold, a bettor who picks 50% winners — exactly coin-flip accuracy on a coin-flip market — loses about 4.8% of turnover over time instead of breaking even. You do not feel it on any single night, which is precisely why casual bettors underestimate it.

The practical defense is twofold. First, shop lines: if one book deals −110 and another −105 on the same side, the cheaper price is worth roughly half a point of win rate, forever. Second, prefer low-hold markets. Two-way props at sharp books often run 3–4% hold while soft books post the same prop at 6% or worse. Same bet, very different toll.

Why props carry more hold than sides

Player props are less liquid and harder to price than game lines, so books protect themselves with wider margins. That cuts both ways: the higher hold is the cost you pay, but the pricing imprecision is also where beatable numbers come from. The board’s job is finding the props where the mispricing is bigger than the margin.

Worked example

Worked example — the hold on −110 / −110

Implied probability per side
110 ÷ 210 = 52.4%
Sum of both sides
52.4% + 52.4% = 104.76%
Overround
104.76% − 100.00% = 4.76%
Hold
1 − 100 ÷ 104.76 = 4.55%
In dollars (balanced $220 handle)
$220.00 taken − $210.00 paid = $10.00 kept = 4.55%

On balanced action the book keeps 4.55 cents of every dollar bet at −110/−110 — from both sides combined. That is the hurdle every bettor starts behind.

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Related terms

Frequently asked questions

Are hold, vig, and juice the same thing?

In everyday usage, yes — all three name the bookmaker’s margin baked into the prices. Technically, hold is the margin as a share of total money wagered, while the overround (or vig) is the same margin measured as implied probability over 100%. A −110/−110 market has a 4.76% overround and a 4.55% hold.

What is a typical hold on player props?

Anywhere from about 3% at sharp, low-margin books to 7% or more at soft recreational books — generally wider than the ~4.5% standard on game sides. Less liquid markets cost more to make, and books pass that cost to you. Comparing hold across books on the same prop is one of the cheapest edges available.

Can I avoid paying hold?

You cannot avoid it entirely — every posted price includes margin — but you can minimize it. Bet into low-hold markets, shop for the best price on the side you want, and use a devig calculator to see what the market would look like without the vig. Betting exchanges also run meaningfully lower margins than sportsbooks.

How does hold relate to EV?

Hold is why most bets are −EV by default. A price can only be +EV for you when the market’s mispricing on your side is larger than the margin built into it. Devigging removes the hold so you can measure that mispricing directly instead of guessing.

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