MLB home run props today
Every home-run prop on tonight's board, with the sharp market's fair probability beside how often each hitter has actually cleared the line this season. Two answers to the same question — where they disagree is where to look.
Board not up yet
Tonight's board isn't up yet
Books post most home-run props in the afternoon once lineups firm up, and our collector pulls them from mid-afternoon ET onward. The table fills in as prices land — nothing is being hidden.
In the meantime, season home-run rates for every hitter we track are on Trends, and the full multi-market board is on the board.
How to read this board
- Market says — the sharp book's price with its margin stripped out. A single posted price always overstates the chance; this is the number underneath it.
- Season rate — how often this hitter has actually cleared 0.5 home runs in settled games this season. Shown only above 20 games.
- Gap — season rate minus the market's number, in points. Positive means he has cleared it more often than tonight's price implies.
- Last 10 — recent form, and nothing more. See the sample-size note below before reading anything into it.
Why ten games tells you almost nothing here
A home run is a rare event. Across the hitters we track, season over-rates run from 0% to about 44%, with a median near 17%. At that rate, ten games produces 1.7 home runs on average — so a hitter showing 3 in his last ten is almost certainly noise rather than form.
That is why the comparison column uses season rate and why we refuse it below 20 games. Sites that headline "hot streak" home-run picks off a ten-game window are reading randomness.
What we don't account for
Ballpark and weather move home-run probability more than almost anything else — dimensions, altitude, wind direction and temperature all matter, and Coors Field is not Oracle Park. We do not currently carry park-factor or weather data, so this page does not account for either. It is a real gap and we would rather name it than let the table imply completeness.
What the market's number does capture is everything the sharpest book knows, park and weather included — which is part of why the fair probability is worth showing next to the raw rate.
Related
- Tonight's player props — every market we price, and where two books disagree on the same bet. Home runs come from one book, so that comparison lives there.
- The full board — every priced row, filterable.
- Trends — season and recent rates across every market.
- Home run leaders — who is actually hitting them this season.
- Odds converter — turn a longshot price into a probability you can compare.
- What a fair price means — how the market's number is worked out.
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Questions
What is a home run prop?
A bet on whether a specific hitter hits at least one home run in a game. The line is almost always 0.5, so "over" means one or more. Because home runs are rare, the over is priced as a longshot — typically between +250 and +700.
How often does a hitter actually go over 0.5 home runs?
Less often than most people expect. Across the hitters we track, season over-rates run from 0% to about 44%, with a median near 17%. So a typical regular clears the line roughly one game in six.
What does the fair price on this page mean?
It is the probability implied by the sharpest book's two-sided price with the margin stripped out. That is the market's own estimate of the chance, rather than the padded number a single posted price implies.
Why compare the fair price to a hitter’s season rate?
Because they answer the same question two different ways. The fair price is the market’s forecast; the season rate is what actually happened. Where they disagree is where it is worth looking — not as a signal to bet, but as a reason to look closer at the matchup.
Why do you not show a best price across every sportsbook?
Because our odds feed currently supplies home-run props from one book only. We would rather say that than imply a comparison we cannot make. Every other market on our board carries more books, and we are working on home-run coverage.
Do park factors and weather matter for home run props?
Substantially — ballpark dimensions, altitude, wind direction and temperature all move home-run probability. We do not currently carry park or weather data, so this page does not account for them. Anyone telling you their home-run model is complete without them is overstating it.
How often does this page update?
Prices refresh through the day as our collector pulls them, and the page re-renders at least every five minutes. The timestamp at the top is the actual collection time, not the page load time.