MLB player props today
Every prop market we priced tonight, with the sharp market's fair probability beside the posted price — and, where two sportsbooks disagree about the same bet, the difference in dollars. No picks, no recommendations.
885 props · 15 games · 11 markets · DK, FD, MGM, PIN · prices as of Jul 26, 5:21 PM ET
Where the books disagree tonight
Same player, same market, same line — different payout depending on where you look. The widest gap on tonight's board is Luis Arraez stolen bases over 0.5: +900 at DK against +675 at MGM — a $225 difference in profit on the same $100 bet.
231 of 885 props have two or more books quoting them, which is the only case where a comparison is possible. Gaps under $5 on $100 are left out — below that it is rounding, not disagreement.
| Player | Market | Best | Worst | On $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Arraez LAA@SF | Stolen baseso0.5 | +900DK | +675MGM | $225 |
Jose Siri LAA@SF | Stolen baseso0.5 | +800DK | +600MGM | $200 |
Braden Montgomery HOU@CWS | Hitso0.5 | +285DK | +150MGM | $135 |
Caleb Durbin TOR@BOS | RBIso0.5 | +600DK | +475MGM | $125 |
Willson Contreras TOR@BOS | RBIso0.5 | +500DK | +390MGM | $110 |
Ezequiel Duran SEA@TEX | RBIso1.5 | +475DK | +375MGM | $100 |
Bryson Stott NYY@PHI | Stolen baseso0.5 | +600DK | +500MGM | $100 |
Cole Carrigg COL@MIL | RBIso1.5 | +700DK | +600MGM | $100 |
Justin Crawford NYY@PHI | Stolen baseso0.5 | +700DK | +600MGM | $100 |
Trea Turner NYY@PHI | Stolen baseso0.5 | +541DK | +450MGM | $91 |
Romy Gonzalez TOR@BOS | RBIso0.5 | +475DK | +390MGM | $85 |
Starling Marte KC@DET | RBIso0.5 | +340MGM | +260DK | $80 |
The gold figure is ours — the difference in profit on a $100 stake between the best and worst price we can see. It is arithmetic on posted prices, not a forecast. Work it out for your own stake.
Tonight's board, by market
Pitching markets first, then hitting. “Market says” is the devigged fair probability — the sharp price with its margin removed. “Spread” is the dollar gap between the best and worst price when more than one book quoted the line.
Strikeouts
16 pitchers · 4 books · 1 comparable
| Pitcher | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Warren NYY@PHI | 4.5 | +120MGM | 45.6% | $15 |
Kyle Freeland COL@MIL | 3.5 | −179PIN | 59.4% | — |
Janson Junk SD@MIA | 3.5 | −173PIN | 59.2% | — |
Andrew Abbott CIN@STL | 3.5 | −171PIN | 59.0% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft CHC@PIT | 5.5 | −162PIN | 57.4% | — |
Logan Gilbert SEA@TEX | 4.5 | −150DK | 55.8% | — |
Emmet Sheehan LAD@NYM | 5.5 | −149PIN | 55.7% | — |
Parker Messick CLE@TB | 4.5 | −111PIN | 49.1% | — |
Show 8 more pitchers
Kyle Leahy CIN@STL | 4.5 | −107PIN | 48.3% | — |
Freddy Peralta LAD@NYM | 5.5 | +109PIN | 44.5% | — |
Jacob Misiorowski COL@MIL | 8.5 | +113PIN | 43.6% | — |
Erick Fedde HOU@CWS | 3.5 | +117PIN | 43.1% | — |
Jacob deGrom SEA@TEX | 7.5 | +120PIN | 42.1% | — |
Jeffrey Springs ATH@MIN | 4.5 | +129PIN | 40.8% | — |
Walker Buehler SD@MIA | 4.5 | +133PIN | 40.1% | — |
Drew Rasmussen CLE@TB | 5.5 | +140PIN | 39.0% | — |
Outs recorded
16 pitchers · 4 books · 2 comparable
| Pitcher | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Braxton Ashcraft CHC@PIT | 16.5 | −109DK | 49.6% | $7 |
Will Warren NYY@PHI | 14.5 | −118MGM | 51.3% | $5.38 |
Jacob Misiorowski COL@MIL | 17.5 | −205DK | 62.7% | — |
Jacob deGrom SEA@TEX | 17.5 | −190PIN | 61.2% | — |
Framber Valdez KC@DET | 17.5 | −177PIN | 59.7% | — |
Logan Gilbert SEA@TEX | 17.5 | −150DK | 55.8% | — |
Parker Messick CLE@TB | 17.5 | −139PIN | 54.4% | — |
Andrew Abbott CIN@STL | 16.5 | −131PIN | 53.0% | — |
Show 8 more pitchers
Emmet Sheehan LAD@NYM | 15.5 | −126PIN | 52.1% | — |
Walker Buehler SD@MIA | 14.5 | −125DK | 51.5% | — |
Kyle Freeland COL@MIL | 15.5 | −121PIN | 51.2% | — |
Drew Rasmussen CLE@TB | 17.5 | −113PIN | 49.6% | — |
Kyle Leahy CIN@STL | 16.5 | +101PIN | 46.4% | — |
Jeffrey Springs ATH@MIN | 15.5 | +105PIN | 45.6% | — |
Janson Junk SD@MIA | 15.5 | +109PIN | 44.8% | — |
Freddy Peralta LAD@NYM | 15.5 | +150PIN | 36.9% | — |
Hits allowed
15 pitchers · 3 books · 1 comparable
| Pitcher | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Warren NYY@PHI | 4.5 | −105MGM | 47.9% | $10 |
Erick Fedde HOU@CWS | 4.5 | −168PIN | 58.1% | — |
Kevin Gausman TOR@BOS | 5.5 | −144PIN | 55.1% | — |
Parker Messick CLE@TB | 4.5 | −135PIN | 53.5% | — |
Framber Valdez KC@DET | 5.5 | −122PIN | 51.3% | — |
Andrew Abbott CIN@STL | 5.5 | −112PIN | 49.4% | — |
Emmet Sheehan LAD@NYM | 4.5 | −110PIN | 49.0% | — |
Shane Baz ATL@BAL | 5.5 | −110PIN | 48.9% | — |
Show 7 more pitchers
Kyle Leahy CIN@STL | 5.5 | −109PIN | 48.7% | — |
Kyle Freeland COL@MIL | 6.5 | +101PIN | 46.5% | — |
Drew Rasmussen CLE@TB | 4.5 | +102PIN | 46.1% | — |
Jeffrey Springs ATH@MIN | 5.5 | +103PIN | 46.1% | — |
Freddy Peralta LAD@NYM | 5.5 | +119PIN | 42.6% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft CHC@PIT | 5.5 | +124PIN | 41.7% | — |
Jacob Misiorowski COL@MIL | 3.5 | +139PIN | 39.1% | — |
Earned runs
17 pitchers · 3 books · 1 comparable
| Pitcher | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Warren NYY@PHI | 2.5 | +105MGM | 45.1% | $3 |
Jacob deGrom SEA@TEX | 1.5 | −166PIN | 57.9% | — |
Jacob Misiorowski COL@MIL | 0.5 | −158PIN | 56.8% | — |
Parker Messick CLE@TB | 1.5 | −142PIN | 54.6% | — |
Kevin Gausman TOR@BOS | 2.5 | −137PIN | 53.9% | — |
Andrew Abbott CIN@STL | 2.5 | −135PIN | 53.7% | — |
Drew Rasmussen CLE@TB | 1.5 | −135PIN | 53.7% | — |
Luinder Avila KC@DET | 2.5 | −130PIN | 52.7% | — |
Show 9 more pitchers
Freddy Peralta LAD@NYM | 2.5 | −120PIN | 50.9% | — |
Erick Fedde HOU@CWS | 2.5 | −109PIN | 48.8% | — |
Shane Baz ATL@BAL | 2.5 | −107PIN | 48.4% | — |
Kyle Freeland COL@MIL | 3.5 | +104PIN | 45.8% | — |
Jeffrey Springs ATH@MIN | 3.5 | +109PIN | 44.5% | — |
Framber Valdez KC@DET | 2.5 | +110PIN | 44.3% | — |
Kyle Leahy CIN@STL | 2.5 | +111PIN | 44.3% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft CHC@PIT | 2.5 | +113PIN | 43.8% | — |
Emmet Sheehan LAD@NYM | 2.5 | +122PIN | 42.1% | — |
Walks
15 pitchers · DK only
One book priced this market tonight, so there is no comparison to draw. The fair probability still means something — it is that book's own price with the margin taken out.
| Pitcher | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drew Rasmussen CLE@TB | 0.5 | −215DK | 63.5% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft CHC@PIT | 2.5 | −205DK | 62.7% | — |
Jeffrey Springs ATH@MIN | 1.5 | −150DK | 56.1% | — |
Freddy Peralta LAD@NYM | 2.5 | −145DK | 54.8% | — |
Erick Fedde HOU@CWS | 1.5 | −137DK | 54.1% | — |
Walker Buehler SD@MIA | 1.5 | −115DK | 49.5% | — |
Parker Messick CLE@TB | 1.5 | −113DK | 49.5% | — |
Will Warren NYY@PHI | 1.5 | −107DK | 48.3% | — |
Show 7 more pitchers
Kyle Leahy CIN@STL | 1.5 | −105DK | 47.5% | — |
Emmet Sheehan LAD@NYM | 1.5 | −105DK | 47.5% | — |
Kyle Freeland COL@MIL | 0.5 | +100DK | 46.2% | — |
Kevin Gausman TOR@BOS | 1.5 | +105DK | 45.5% | — |
Andrew Abbott CIN@STL | 3.5 | +120DK | 42.2% | — |
Shane Baz ATL@BAL | 1.5 | +165DK | 35.1% | — |
Jacob Misiorowski COL@MIL | 0.5 | +215DK | 29.7% | — |
Home runs
24 hitters · PIN only
One book priced this market tonight, so there is no comparison to draw. The fair probability still means something — it is that book's own price with the margin taken out.
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +162PIN | 35.0% | — |
Shohei Ohtani LAD@NYM | 0.5 | +183PIN | 32.3% | — |
Yordan Alvarez HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +209PIN | 30.2% | — |
Miguel Vargas HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +222PIN | 28.2% | — |
Bryce Harper NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +237PIN | 26.9% | — |
Munetaka Murakami HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +251PIN | 25.8% | — |
Junior Caminero CLE@TB | 0.5 | +277PIN | 24.0% | — |
Royce Lewis ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +321PIN | 22.2% | — |
Show 12 more hitters
Max Muncy LAD@NYM | 0.5 | +348PIN | 20.9% | — |
Shea Langeliers ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +335PIN | 20.8% | — |
Willson Contreras TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +359PIN | 20.4% | — |
Hunter Goodman COL@MIL | 0.5 | +376PIN | 19.6% | — |
Ryan Jeffers ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +376PIN | 19.6% | — |
Jackson Chourio COL@MIL | 0.5 | +372PIN | 19.1% | — |
Cal Raleigh SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +372PIN | 19.1% | — |
Joc Pederson SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +400PIN | 18.7% | — |
Jordan Walker CIN@STL | 0.5 | +396PIN | 18.2% | — |
Zach Neto LAA@SF | 0.5 | +425PIN | 17.8% | — |
Andrew Benintendi HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +440PIN | 17.3% | — |
Rafael Devers LAA@SF | 0.5 | +458PIN | 16.8% | — |
Showing 20 of 24 home runs props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 4 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
Home runs get their own page with hitter-by-hitter season and recent-form detail — home run props today.
Hits
172 hitters · 2 books · 64 comparable
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Braden Montgomery HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +285DK | 31.0% | $135 |
Mickey Moniak COL@MIL | 0.5 | +220DK | 31.3% | $40 |
Cole Carrigg COL@MIL | 1.5 | +215DK | 31.6% | $35 |
Ezequiel Duran SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +155DK | 39.5% | $35 |
Dominic Canzone SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +155DK | 39.1% | $30 |
Max Schuemann NYY@PHI | 0.5 | −115DK | 52.9% | $20 |
Jake Bauers COL@MIL | 1.5 | +180MGM | 34.6% | $20 |
Alejandro Kirk TOR@BOS | 0.5 | −125DK | 54.3% | $15 |
Show 12 more hitters
Brandon Nimmo SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +140MGM | 40.1% | $15 |
Tommy White ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +165MGM | 36.4% | $15 |
Daulton Varsho TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +175DK | 34.9% | $15 |
Tyler Soderstrom ATH@MIN | 1.5 | +155MGM | 37.8% | $15 |
Starling Marte KC@DET | 0.5 | −140MGM | 56.5% | $13 |
Luis Arraez LAA@SF | 1.5 | +147DK | 38.8% | $12 |
Kerry Carpenter KC@DET | 0.5 | −155DK | 58.9% | $12 |
Amed Rosario NYY@PHI | 0.5 | −180DK | 62.5% | $11 |
Bryson Stott NYY@PHI | 0.5 | −164DK | 60.1% | $11 |
Jake Burger SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +145DK | 38.9% | $10 |
Evan Carter SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +195MGM | 32.3% | $10 |
Cal Raleigh SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +175MGM | 34.7% | $10 |
Showing 20 of 172 hits props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 152 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
Total bases
189 hitters · 3 books · 40 comparable
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Carrigg COL@MIL | 4.5 | +215DK | 31.6% | $35 |
Tyler Soderstrom ATH@MIN | 1.5 | +155MGM | 42.3% | $34 |
Mike Trout LAA@SF | 1.5 | +140MGM | 42.7% | $25 |
Brandon Marsh NYY@PHI | 1.5 | +139DK | 38.2% | $25 |
Wyatt Langford SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +110DK | 39.7% | $25 |
Brandon Nimmo SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +140MGM | 42.8% | $22 |
Casey Schmitt LAA@SF | 1.5 | +155MGM | 37.3% | $20 |
Jake Bauers COL@MIL | 2.5 | +180MGM | 34.6% | $20 |
Show 12 more hitters
Jose Siri LAA@SF | 0.5 | −135MGM | 48.7% | $18 |
Jo Adell LAA@SF | 1.5 | +135MGM | 38.6% | $16 |
Bryce Harper NYY@PHI | 1.5 | +115DK | 42.3% | $16 |
Kyle Schwarber NYY@PHI | 1.5 | +115MGM | 46.0% | $16 |
Justin Crawford NYY@PHI | 0.5 | −190MGM | 55.9% | $14 |
Zach Neto LAA@SF | 1.5 | +120MGM | 45.0% | $14 |
Nick Loftin KC@DET | 1.5 | +170DK | 36.4% | $13 |
Vaughn Grissom LAA@SF | 1.5 | +137DK | 40.6% | $12 |
Trent Grisham NYY@PHI | 0.5 | −155MGM | 53.2% | $11 |
Trea Turner NYY@PHI | 1.5 | +120DK | 43.2% | $10 |
Heliot Ramos LAA@SF | 1.5 | +134DK | 38.6% | $8 |
Rafael Devers LAA@SF | 1.5 | +135DK | 38.5% | $8 |
Showing 20 of 189 total bases props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 169 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
RBIs
149 hitters · 2 books · 63 comparable
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Caleb Durbin TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +600DK | 14.9% | $125 |
Willson Contreras TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +500DK | 17.4% | $110 |
Ezequiel Duran SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +475DK | 18.0% | $100 |
Cole Carrigg COL@MIL | 1.5 | +700DK | 12.7% | $100 |
Romy Gonzalez TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +475DK | 17.8% | $85 |
Starling Marte KC@DET | 0.5 | +340MGM | 23.6% | $80 |
Kazuma Okamoto TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +500DK | 16.8% | $75 |
Luis Rengifo SD@MIA | 0.5 | +600DK | 14.3% | $75 |
Show 12 more hitters
Max Schuemann NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +346DK | 23.0% | $71 |
Jake Burger SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +390DK | 20.7% | $70 |
Alejandro Kirk TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +330DK | 23.9% | $70 |
Liam Hicks SD@MIA | 0.5 | +450DK | 18.1% | $60 |
Brandon Nimmo SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +340MGM | 22.7% | $50 |
William Contreras COL@MIL | 0.5 | +370DK | 21.1% | $50 |
Dominic Canzone SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +390DK | 20.3% | $50 |
Mickey Moniak COL@MIL | 0.5 | +475DK | 17.2% | $50 |
Griffin Conine SD@MIA | 0.5 | +500DK | 16.4% | $50 |
Luis Arraez LAA@SF | 0.5 | +245DK | 29.2% | $45 |
Denzer Guzman LAA@SF | 0.5 | +254DK | 28.3% | $44 |
Amed Rosario NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +293DK | 25.4% | $43 |
Showing 20 of 149 rbis props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 129 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
Runs scored
169 hitters · 2 books · 48 comparable
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Carrigg COL@MIL | 1.5 | +450DK | 18.4% | $75 |
Michael Conforto CHC@PIT | 2.5 | +300MGM | 25.4% | $60 |
Romy Gonzalez TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +400DK | 20.0% | $60 |
Daulton Varsho TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +400DK | 20.0% | $60 |
Tyler Soderstrom ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +325MGM | 23.6% | $55 |
Dominic Smith ATL@BAL | 0.5 | +250DK | 28.9% | $50 |
Mickey Moniak COL@MIL | 0.5 | +425DK | 18.8% | $50 |
Willson Contreras TOR@BOS | 1.5 | +245DK | 29.1% | $45 |
Show 12 more hitters
Cal Raleigh SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +300MGM | 24.8% | $45 |
Jared Young LAD@NYM | 0.5 | +400MGM | 19.6% | $40 |
Cole Young SEA@TEX | 1.5 | +300DK | 24.7% | $40 |
Josh Naylor SEA@TEX | 0.5 | +320MGM | 23.4% | $40 |
Alejandro Kirk TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +240DK | 28.8% | $30 |
Kerry Carpenter KC@DET | 0.5 | +150DK | 39.7% | $30 |
Starling Marte KC@DET | 0.5 | +200MGM | 32.8% | $30 |
Zach Neto LAA@SF | 0.5 | −105MGM | 50.7% | $22 |
Jo Adell LAA@SF | 0.5 | +135MGM | 41.6% | $22 |
Ryan Kreidler ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +145MGM | 39.6% | $21 |
Kazuma Okamoto TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +360DK | 20.9% | $20 |
Jorge Soler LAA@SF | 0.5 | +140MGM | 40.2% | $17 |
Showing 20 of 169 runs scored props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 149 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
Stolen bases
103 hitters · 2 books · 11 comparable
| Hitter | Line | Price | Market says | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Arraez LAA@SF | 0.5 | +900DK | 10.7% | $225 |
Jose Siri LAA@SF | 0.5 | +800DK | 11.9% | $200 |
Bryson Stott NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +600DK | 14.5% | $100 |
Justin Crawford NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +700DK | 12.6% | $100 |
Trea Turner NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +541DK | 15.7% | $91 |
Sal Stewart CIN@STL | 0.5 | +700MGM | 12.4% | $80 |
Zach Neto LAA@SF | 0.5 | +475MGM | 17.2% | $63 |
Jarren Duran TOR@BOS | 0.5 | +542DK | 15.1% | $42 |
Show 12 more hitters
Chandler Simpson CLE@TB | 0.5 | +319DK | 22.7% | $19 |
Anthony Volpe NYY@PHI | 0.5 | +500MGM | 15.6% | $2 |
Austin Martin ATH@MIN | 0.5 | +450MGM | 17.0% | $1 |
Sung-Mun Song SD@MIA | 0.5 | +450MGM | 16.7% | — |
Travis Bazzana CLE@TB | 0.5 | +500DK | 15.6% | — |
Petey Halpin CLE@TB | 0.5 | +500MGM | 15.4% | — |
Noelvi Marte CIN@STL | 0.5 | +500MGM | 15.4% | — |
Jose Altuve HOU@CWS | 0.5 | +575MGM | 13.7% | — |
Dansby Swanson CHC@PIT | 0.5 | +600MGM | 13.2% | — |
Ben Williamson CLE@TB | 0.5 | +625MGM | 12.8% | — |
Shohei Ohtani LAD@NYM | 0.5 | +625MGM | 12.8% | — |
Andy Pages LAD@NYM | 0.5 | +625MGM | 12.7% | — |
Showing 20 of 103 stolen bases props — the ones where books disagree most, then where the season rate sits furthest from the price. 83 more are priced tonight and not listed here.
How to read this board
The posted price is not the market's opinion
A sportsbook quoting both sides of a prop prices them so the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. On a typical −110 / −110 pair that is 52.4% and 52.4%, or 104.8% in total. The extra 4.8 points is the margin, and it is how the book makes money. It also means every posted price overstates the chance of the thing happening.
Strip that margin out proportionally and what is left is the market's actual estimate. That is the number in the “Market says” column, and it is always lower than the posted price implies. It is the closest thing to an honest forecast a sportsbook will ever publish, because the book has money at risk behind it. More on fair odds, or devig a price yourself.
Why the same bet pays differently at two books
Sportsbooks are independent businesses. They run different models, serve different customers and carry different exposure. A book that has taken heavy action on one side will shade its price to balance the ledger whether or not the true probability moved. Nobody arbitrates between them, so at any given moment the same prop can carry materially different payouts.
The dollar figure in the “On $100” column is the size of that disagreement — the extra profit from taking the better of the two prices on a $100 stake. It is not an edge and not a prediction; it is the same bet costing two different amounts.
Longshots dominate the gap column, and that is arithmetic
Stolen bases and RBIs fill the top of the disagreement table most nights. That is not because those markets are softer. Margin is charged as a percentage, and the same percentage applied to a +700 longshot moves the payout by far more dollars than it does on a −150 favourite. Two points of implied probability is worth a few dollars on a short price and tens of dollars on a long one. Read the gap column as a dollar magnitude, not a ranking of which markets are mispriced.
Coverage is uneven, and the header tells you how uneven
Sportsbooks pick which props to offer, so the number of books behind a market swings a lot. Total bases usually comes back from most of the books we poll; walks and stolen bases often come back from one or two. Every market header carries its own book count and how many of its rows are actually comparable, because a sitewide average would flatter the thin markets and understate the deep ones.
Where only one book priced a market there is nothing to compare and the spread column is empty. The fair probability still means something on those rows — it is that book's own price with the margin removed.
What is missing, stated plainly
Coverage is uneven and we would rather show that than hide it. A row only carries a comparison when at least two books priced it, and each market header says how many books it came back from. Some markets arrive from one book only; on those, the fair price is still meaningful but there is nothing to compare it against. A dash means we do not have the number, never that the number is zero.
What these prices return
Every price on this page is American odds. Here is what the common ones pay on a $100 stake, and the break-even probability each one implies — the win rate you would need just to come out level.
| Price | Profit on $100 | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| −200 | $50.00 | 66.7% |
| −150 | $66.67 | 60.0% |
| −110 | $90.91 | 52.4% |
| +100 | $100.00 | 50.0% |
| +150 | $150.00 | 40.0% |
| +250 | $250.00 | 28.6% |
| +400 | $400.00 | 20.0% |
| +700 | $700.00 | 12.5% |
Convert any price yourself with the odds converter, or work a full payout with the bet calculator.
Common questions
What does this page show?
Every MLB player prop market our collector priced today — strikeouts, hits, home runs, total bases, RBIs, runs, stolen bases and more — with two numbers beside each line. The price a sportsbook is posting, and the fair price we work out by stripping the margin out of the sharpest available two-sided market. Where two books price the same bet differently, we show the gap in dollars.
Are these picks?
No. There is no recommendation anywhere on this page and no bet is suggested. It is a reference board: what is posted, what the market implies, and where the books disagree. What to do with that is your call.
What is a fair price?
A sportsbook's two sides always add up to more than 100% — that overround is the margin. Strip it out proportionally and you get the market's own estimate of the chance, before the book's cut. That is the fair price. It is always a shorter number than the one posted, because the posted price has the margin baked in.
Why do two sportsbooks price the same bet differently?
Because they are independent businesses with different models, different customers and different exposure. If a book has taken a lot of money on one side it will shade the price to balance its book, regardless of what the true probability is. Nobody arbitrates between them, so the same bet can carry meaningfully different payouts at the same moment.
Why are the widest gaps almost always longshots?
Because margin is charged as a percentage, and a percentage of a big number is a big number. A two-point difference in implied probability on a +700 longshot moves the payout by far more dollars than the same two points on a −150 favourite. Wide dollar gaps in the stolen-base and RBI markets are a structural feature of longshot pricing, not evidence that those markets are softer.
How many sportsbooks do you compare?
Up to four on this board today, and a given row only shows a comparison when at least two of them priced it. Coverage differs sharply by market — some markets come back from four books, others from one — so the count on each section header is the honest number for that market rather than a sitewide claim.
How often does this page update?
Prices refresh through the day as our collector pulls them and the page re-renders at least every five minutes. The timestamp at the top is the actual collection time, not the time you loaded the page.
Why do some rows have no fair price?
A fair price needs both sides of a market to remove the margin from. Some books post only the over on longshot props, which leaves nothing to devig. Those rows still appear — they are tonight’s market and worth seeing — but they carry a dash instead of a number we cannot honestly compute.
Why does the number of books differ by market?
Because sportsbooks choose which props to offer. A market like total bases comes back from most of the books we poll; walks or stolen bases often come back from one or two. We show the real count per market rather than a sitewide average, so you can tell at a glance whether a comparison on that section means anything.
Related pages
- Home run props today — every hitter's fair price beside his actual home-run rate.
- Bet calculator — what any price returns on your stake, in all three formats.
- Parlay calculator — combine legs and see how the margin compounds.
- Arbitrage calculator — when two books disagree far enough, check whether both sides clear.
- All calculators — devig, hedge, odds conversion and the rest.
- MLB hub — pitchers, lineups and player pages.
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