MLB player props today
Every prop market we priced tonight, with the sharp market's fair probability beside the posted price — and, where two sportsbooks disagree about the same bet, the difference in dollars. No picks, no recommendations.
No board yet today
Our collector pulls prices in windows before first pitch, so the board fills in through the afternoon. Nothing has landed for today yet. This page shows what we actually have rather than yesterday's prices dressed as tonight's — check back closer to game time.
In the meantime the calculators work without a live board.
How to read this board
The posted price is not the market's opinion
A sportsbook quoting both sides of a prop prices them so the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. On a typical −110 / −110 pair that is 52.4% and 52.4%, or 104.8% in total. The extra 4.8 points is the margin, and it is how the book makes money. It also means every posted price overstates the chance of the thing happening.
Strip that margin out proportionally and what is left is the market's actual estimate. That is the number in the “Market says” column, and it is always lower than the posted price implies. It is the closest thing to an honest forecast a sportsbook will ever publish, because the book has money at risk behind it. More on fair odds, or devig a price yourself.
Why the same bet pays differently at two books
Sportsbooks are independent businesses. They run different models, serve different customers and carry different exposure. A book that has taken heavy action on one side will shade its price to balance the ledger whether or not the true probability moved. Nobody arbitrates between them, so at any given moment the same prop can carry materially different payouts.
The dollar figure in the “On $100” column is the size of that disagreement — the extra profit from taking the better of the two prices on a $100 stake. It is not an edge and not a prediction; it is the same bet costing two different amounts.
Longshots dominate the gap column, and that is arithmetic
Stolen bases and RBIs fill the top of the disagreement table most nights. That is not because those markets are softer. Margin is charged as a percentage, and the same percentage applied to a +700 longshot moves the payout by far more dollars than it does on a −150 favourite. Two points of implied probability is worth a few dollars on a short price and tens of dollars on a long one. Read the gap column as a dollar magnitude, not a ranking of which markets are mispriced.
Coverage is uneven, and the header tells you how uneven
Sportsbooks pick which props to offer, so the number of books behind a market swings a lot. Total bases usually comes back from most of the books we poll; walks and stolen bases often come back from one or two. Every market header carries its own book count and how many of its rows are actually comparable, because a sitewide average would flatter the thin markets and understate the deep ones.
Where only one book priced a market there is nothing to compare and the spread column is empty. The fair probability still means something on those rows — it is that book's own price with the margin removed.
The short codes in the tables are PIN Pinnacle, DK DraftKings, FD FanDuel, MGM BetMGM, BR BetRivers, BOL BetOnline, BOV Bovada, FAN Fanatics and MB MyBookie. We are not affiliated with any of them and there are no betting links anywhere on this page.
What is missing, stated plainly
Coverage is uneven and we would rather show that than hide it. A row only carries a comparison when at least two books priced it, and each market header says how many books it came back from. Some markets arrive from one book only; on those, the fair price is still meaningful but there is nothing to compare it against. A dash means we do not have the number, never that the number is zero.
What these prices return
Every price on this page is American odds. Here is what the common ones pay on a $100 stake, and the break-even probability each one implies — the win rate you would need just to come out level.
| Price | Profit on $100 | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| −200 | $50.00 | 66.7% |
| −150 | $66.67 | 60.0% |
| −110 | $90.91 | 52.4% |
| +100 | $100.00 | 50.0% |
| +150 | $150.00 | 40.0% |
| +250 | $250.00 | 28.6% |
| +400 | $400.00 | 20.0% |
| +700 | $700.00 | 12.5% |
Convert any price yourself with the odds converter, or work a full payout with the bet calculator.
Common questions
What does this page show?
Every MLB player prop market our collector priced today — strikeouts, hits, home runs, total bases, RBIs, runs, stolen bases and more — with two numbers beside each line. The price a sportsbook is posting, and the fair price we work out by stripping the margin out of the sharpest available two-sided market. Where two books price the same bet differently, we show the gap in dollars.
Are these picks?
No. There is no recommendation anywhere on this page and no bet is suggested. It is a reference board: what is posted, what the market implies, and where the books disagree. What to do with that is your call.
What is a fair price?
A sportsbook's two sides always add up to more than 100% — that overround is the margin. Strip it out proportionally and you get the market's own estimate of the chance, before the book's cut. That is the fair price. It is always a shorter number than the one posted, because the posted price has the margin baked in.
Why do two sportsbooks price the same bet differently?
Because they are independent businesses with different models, different customers and different exposure. If a book has taken a lot of money on one side it will shade the price to balance its book, regardless of what the true probability is. Nobody arbitrates between them, so the same bet can carry meaningfully different payouts at the same moment.
Why are the widest gaps almost always longshots?
Because margin is charged as a percentage, and a percentage of a big number is a big number. A two-point difference in implied probability on a +700 longshot moves the payout by far more dollars than the same two points on a −150 favourite. Wide dollar gaps in the stolen-base and RBI markets are a structural feature of longshot pricing, not evidence that those markets are softer.
How many sportsbooks do you compare?
Up to nine, and a given row only shows a comparison when at least two of them priced that exact line. Coverage differs sharply by market and by how close it is to first pitch, so every market header carries its own book count and how many of its rows are actually comparable — a sitewide average would flatter the thin markets and understate the deep ones.
How often does this page update?
Prices refresh through the day as our collector pulls them and the page re-renders at least every five minutes. The timestamp at the top is the actual collection time, not the time you loaded the page.
Why do some rows have no fair price?
A fair price needs both sides of a market to remove the margin from. Some books post only the over on longshot props, which leaves nothing to devig. Those rows still appear — they are tonight’s market and worth seeing — but they carry a dash instead of a number we cannot honestly compute.
Why does the number of books differ by market?
Because sportsbooks choose which props to offer. A market like total bases comes back from most of the books we poll; walks or stolen bases often come back from one or two. We show the real count per market rather than a sitewide average, so you can tell at a glance whether a comparison on that section means anything.
Related pages
- Home run props today — every hitter's fair price beside his actual home-run rate.
- Bet calculator — what any price returns on your stake, in all three formats.
- Parlay calculator — combine legs and see how the margin compounds.
- Arbitrage calculator — when two books disagree far enough, check whether both sides clear.
- All calculators — devig, hedge, odds conversion and the rest.
- MLB hub — pitchers, lineups and player pages.
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