Will Warren Earned Runs
NYY · P
Will Will Warren get more than 1.5 earned runs? Recent prop history isn't available yet.
Will Warren earned runs line — live odds
No live line for this prop today — updated when books post.
6 of his last 10 over 2.5 earned runs
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Earned runs props are sensitive to run environment, matchup strength, and leash. Use this page for the price and game-log context, then compare to tonight’s broader slate conditions.
Will Warren is not on tonight's slate.
Where are the best odds for Will Warren earned runs?
How often does he hit this number?
Each bar shows earned runs per start. He went over his earned runs line in 3 of 5 of these games (each game uses its own posted line).
Statcast Numbers
Whiff Rate
22.6%
Swing-and-miss rate · avg ~25%
Chase Rate
28.7%
Chases outside zone · avg ~30%
CSW Rate
27.8%
Called strikes + whiffs · avg ~28%
Under Rate — How often he stays under his earned runs line. Higher = he limits damage consistently.
CSW Rate — Called strikes + whiffs per pitch. Pitchers with high CSW tend to avoid big innings.
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What each sportsbook is paying
3 books have priced Will Warren's earned runs over 2.5 at almost identical prices.
| Sportsbook | Over 2.5 | Implied | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGMbest | +105 | 48.8% | $105.00 |
| BOV | +105 | 48.8% | $105.00 |
| FAN | +105 | 48.8% | $105.00 |
Every posted price above overstates the chance, because the book's margin is baked into it. Strip that out and the sharp market's own estimate is 45.1% — a fair price of +122. That is a forecast with money behind it, not our opinion, and it is the number the posted prices should be read against. How fair odds work.
Prices are the most recent we collected and move through the day. We are not affiliated with any sportsbook and there are no betting links on this page — this is a reference, not a recommendation. See every market on tonight's board.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the earned runs line for Will Warren tonight?▾
The current earned runs line for Will Warren (NYY) is 1.5. The odds table above lists the over and under price at every sportsbook that's posted this prop and highlights the best available price in gold so you can shop the line.
How often does Will Warren go over on earned runs?▾
Recent earned runs hit-rate isn't calculable yet for Will Warren — the prop_results dataset needs at least a few settled games to produce a meaningful percentage. Once enough games settle, this section will populate with the over rate and a game-by-game chart.
Where can I find the best odds for Will Warren earned runs?▾
OddsGuy compares Will Warren earned runs pricing across 8 sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, Pinnacle, and Bovada. The odds table above highlights the best available price in gold. On the same line, even a small price difference (e.g. -110 vs -105) compounds meaningfully over many bets, so always shop the line before placing it.
Is Will Warren's earned runs prop worth betting?▾
OddsGuy doesn't issue an official rating on individual earned runs props — that's what the live scanner inside the dashboard does. Use the line, the hit-rate trend, and the multi-book pricing on this page to do your own research, then check /dashboard/scanner (Pro) for the engine's promoted plays for tonight.
Will Warren Earned Runs Prop Analysis Team: NYY | Position: P Line: 1.5 earned runs