Francisco Alvarez Total Bases
NYM · C
Will Francisco Alvarez get more than 0.5 total bases? He has in 30% of his last 20 starts.
Francisco Alvarez total bases line — live odds
as of 5:05 PM ET| Side · 0.5 | DK | FD | MGM | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | +100 | +100MGM |
| Under 0.5 | — | — | −135 | −108PIN |
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Total bases props combine hit probability with power. This page covers the current line and recent trend; use the linked MLB pages below to compare that number to the rest of tonight’s board.
Where are the best odds for Francisco Alvarez total bases?
Best price for more than 0.5 total bases: Fliff
| Sportsbook | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Fliff | +155 | -230 |
| ReBet | +145 | — |
How often does he hit this number?
Over rate · last 20 games
Each bar shows total bases per start. The gold dashed line is the most recent posted total bases line (0.5). He went over 2 of 5 times against this line.
Statcast Numbers
The metrics that drive total bases most directly.
Barrel %
27.5%
Highest-quality contact · league avg ~7%
SLG
.682
Slugging percentage · league avg ~.420
Hard Hit %
60.0%
Pct of balls hit ≥95 mph · league avg ~36%
Stats as of 2026-08-29 · extended sample through 2025-09-28
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What each sportsbook is paying
4 books have priced Francisco Alvarez's total bases over 0.5 and they do not agree. Taking MGM over PIN is worth $18 more profit on the same $100 bet.
| Sportsbook | Over 0.5 | Implied | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGMbest | +100 | 50.0% | $100.00 |
| BOL | −108 | 51.9% | $92.59 |
| BR | −114 | 53.3% | $87.72 |
| PIN | −122 | 55.0% | $81.97 |
Every posted price above overstates the chance, because the book's margin is baked into it. Strip that out and the sharp market's own estimate is 51.4% — a fair price of −106. That is a forecast with money behind it, not our opinion, and it is the number the posted prices should be read against. How fair odds work.
Prices are the most recent we collected and move through the day. We are not affiliated with any sportsbook and there are no betting links on this page — this is a reference, not a recommendation. See every market on tonight's board.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the total bases line for Francisco Alvarez tonight?▾
The current total bases line for Francisco Alvarez (NYM) is 0.5. The odds table above lists the over and under price at every sportsbook that's posted this prop and highlights the best available price in gold so you can shop the line.
How often does Francisco Alvarez go over on total bases?▾
Over his last 20 settled games, Francisco Alvarez has gone over the total bases line 30% of the time. The hit-rate chart above plots each game's actual stat against the posted line so you can see whether the recent trend is supporting an over or an under play.
Where can I find the best odds for Francisco Alvarez total bases?▾
OddsGuy compares Francisco Alvarez total bases pricing across 8 sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, Pinnacle, and Bovada. The odds table above highlights the best available price in gold. On the same line, even a small price difference (e.g. -110 vs -105) compounds meaningfully over many bets, so always shop the line before placing it.
Is Francisco Alvarez's total bases prop worth betting?▾
OddsGuy doesn't issue an official rating on individual total bases props — that's what the live scanner inside the dashboard does. Use the line, the hit-rate trend, and the multi-book pricing on this page to do your own research, then check /dashboard/scanner (Pro) for the engine's promoted plays for tonight.
Francisco Alvarez Total Bases Prop Analysis Team: NYM | Position: C Line: 0.5 total bases Hit rate: 30% over last 20 games Odds: Fliff O155/U-230, ReBet O145/U-