Josh Naylor Home Runs
SEA · 1B
Will Josh Naylor get more than 0.5 home runs? He has in 12% of his last 17 starts.
Josh Naylor home runs line — live odds
as of 11:45 AM ET| Side · 0.5 | DK | FD | MGM | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | — | +540PIN |
| Under 0.5 | — | — | — | −1056PIN |
2 of his last 10 over 0.5 home runs
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Home run props are high-volatility markets, so context matters. This page gives the posted line and prices; pair it with the player overview and slate-wide odds to judge whether the number is worth it.
Where are the best odds for Josh Naylor home runs?
Best price for more than 0.5 home runs: BetRivers
| Sportsbook | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Fliff | +495 | -1205 |
| TheScore Bet | +525 | -1000 |
| Caesars | +425 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +575 | — |
| BetRivers | +600 | — |
| BetPARX | +600 | -1667 |
| Bally Bet | +600 | — |
How often does he hit this number?
Over rate · last 17 games
Each bar shows home runs per start. The gold dashed line is the most recent posted home runs line (0.5). He went over 0 of 5 times against this line.
Statcast Numbers
The metrics that drive home runs most directly.
Barrel %
25.8%
Highest-quality contact · league avg ~7%
Hard Hit %
48.3%
Pct of balls hit ≥95 mph · league avg ~36%
HR Rate
2.5%
Home runs per AB · league avg ~3%
Stats as of 2026-08-28 · extended sample through 2025-09-26
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What each sportsbook is paying
2 books have priced Josh Naylor's home runs over 0.5 and they do not agree. Taking BR over PIN is worth $60 more profit on the same $100 bet.
| Sportsbook | Over 0.5 | Implied | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRbest | +600 | 14.3% | $600.00 |
| PIN | +540 | 15.6% | $540.00 |
Every posted price above overstates the chance, because the book's margin is baked into it. Strip that out and the sharp market's own estimate is 14.6% — a fair price of +584. That is a forecast with money behind it, not our opinion, and it is the number the posted prices should be read against. How fair odds work.
Prices are the most recent we collected and move through the day. We are not affiliated with any sportsbook and there are no betting links on this page — this is a reference, not a recommendation. See every market on tonight's board.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the home runs line for Josh Naylor tonight?▾
The current home runs line for Josh Naylor (SEA) is 0.5. The odds table above lists the over and under price at every sportsbook that's posted this prop and highlights the best available price in gold so you can shop the line.
How often does Josh Naylor go over on home runs?▾
Over his last 17 settled games, Josh Naylor has gone over the home runs line 12% of the time. The hit-rate chart above plots each game's actual stat against the posted line so you can see whether the recent trend is supporting an over or an under play.
Where can I find the best odds for Josh Naylor home runs?▾
OddsGuy compares Josh Naylor home runs pricing across 8 sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, Pinnacle, and Bovada. The odds table above highlights the best available price in gold. On the same line, even a small price difference (e.g. -110 vs -105) compounds meaningfully over many bets, so always shop the line before placing it.
Is Josh Naylor's home runs prop worth betting?▾
OddsGuy doesn't issue an official rating on individual home runs props — that's what the live scanner inside the dashboard does. Use the line, the hit-rate trend, and the multi-book pricing on this page to do your own research, then check /dashboard/scanner (Pro) for the engine's promoted plays for tonight.
Josh Naylor Home Runs Prop Analysis Team: SEA | Position: 1B Line: 0.5 home runs Hit rate: 12% over last 17 games Odds: Fliff O495/U-1205, theScore Bet O525/U-1000, Caesars O425/U-, Hard Rock Bet O575/U-, BetRivers O600/U-, betPARX O600/U-1667, Bally Bet O600/U-