Tyler Stephenson Home Runs
CIN · C
Will Tyler Stephenson get more than 0.5 home runs? He has in 25% of his last 20 starts.
Tyler Stephenson home runs line — live odds
No live line for this prop today — updated when books post.
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Home run props are high-volatility markets, so context matters. This page gives the posted line and prices; pair it with the player overview and slate-wide odds to judge whether the number is worth it.
Where are the best odds for Tyler Stephenson home runs?
How often does he hit this number?
Over rate · last 20 games
Each bar shows home runs per start. He went over his home runs line in 2 of 5 of these games (each game uses its own posted line).
Statcast Numbers
The metrics that drive home runs most directly.
Barrel %
29.6%
Highest-quality contact · league avg ~7%
Hard Hit %
43.5%
Pct of balls hit ≥95 mph · league avg ~36%
HR Rate
7.8%
Home runs per AB · league avg ~3%
Stats as of 2026-08-29 · extended sample through 2025-09-28
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What each sportsbook is paying
2 books have priced Tyler Stephenson's home runs over 0.5 and they do not agree. Taking PIN over BR is worth $2 more profit on the same $100 bet.
| Sportsbook | Over 0.5 | Implied | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PINbest | +382 | 20.7% | $382.00 |
| BR | +380 | 20.8% | $380.00 |
Every posted price above overstates the chance, because the book's margin is baked into it. Strip that out and the sharp market's own estimate is 19.4% — a fair price of +416. That is a forecast with money behind it, not our opinion, and it is the number the posted prices should be read against. How fair odds work.
Prices are the most recent we collected and move through the day. We are not affiliated with any sportsbook and there are no betting links on this page — this is a reference, not a recommendation. See every market on tonight's board.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the home runs line for Tyler Stephenson tonight?▾
The current home runs line for Tyler Stephenson (CIN) is 0.5. The odds table above lists the over and under price at every sportsbook that's posted this prop and highlights the best available price in gold so you can shop the line.
How often does Tyler Stephenson go over on home runs?▾
Over his last 20 settled games, Tyler Stephenson has gone over the home runs line 25% of the time. The hit-rate chart above plots each game's actual stat against the posted line so you can see whether the recent trend is supporting an over or an under play.
Where can I find the best odds for Tyler Stephenson home runs?▾
OddsGuy compares Tyler Stephenson home runs pricing across 8 sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, Pinnacle, and Bovada. The odds table above highlights the best available price in gold. On the same line, even a small price difference (e.g. -110 vs -105) compounds meaningfully over many bets, so always shop the line before placing it.
Is Tyler Stephenson's home runs prop worth betting?▾
OddsGuy doesn't issue an official rating on individual home runs props — that's what the live scanner inside the dashboard does. Use the line, the hit-rate trend, and the multi-book pricing on this page to do your own research, then check /dashboard/scanner (Pro) for the engine's promoted plays for tonight.
Tyler Stephenson Home Runs Prop Analysis Team: CIN | Position: C Line: 0.5 home runs Hit rate: 25% over last 20 games